SAN FRANCISCO – May 1, 2018 – CustomWeather, Inc., a specialized provider of high resolution weather forecast and alert services, has issued a Seasonal Climate Forecast for India’s 2018 monsoon season. The early season forecast is favorable, with beneficial and earlier-than-normal rains across most areas during the months of May and June. As the monsoon progresses into July and August, the outlook is not as promising, with many of the southern and western areas that saw a good start to the monsoon transitioning into a rainfall deficit that may extend until the end of the monsoon season. Overall, most areas will end the monsoon season with totals close to seasonal averages as the strong start offsets the poor finish.
During March 2018, La Niña continued to weaken, but was still evident due to below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. With the weakening of the current La Niña, it is likely that La Niña will not influence the upcoming monsoon season.
Overall, total monsoon rainfall for the 6-month forecast period May-October should be mostly average. However, it will be distributed unevenly throughout the season. May and June are forecast to have surplus rainfall over large parts of India, especially the southern and southwestern regions. However, July, and especially, August, are forecast to have moderate rainfall deficits over western and southwestern and southern India. Central India is the only area with small rainfall surpluses in September. Other areas expect average rainfall, with the exception of far southern India, where moderate deficits should be expected. Average rainfall is expected over most of India during October. Temperatures are forecast to be average to slightly above-average over the far Northern provinces throughout the period and mostly average elsewhere. The exception will be over central India during May, June and July when temperatures are expected to be slightly below-average.
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